The Coffee Shop

[Jollyrei]

It's a truel

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truel

I don't think Belle's note to Tree says:

if the order is Tree, Bobinder, Wragg, with respective probabilities

and it is Wragg's turn, he should waste his shot if:

but not do so if:

In between, Wragg should waste his shot if:

Actually, one thing I think we need to know - are they only allowed one shot each?

Of course. Makes perfect sense. Child's play really.

 

[bobinder]

So, Bob if it's you, Wragg and Tree in this truel, which one is The Good, which one is The Bad and which one is The Ugly?

Good question...

 

[thehangingtree]

Good question...

View attachment 589975View attachment 589976View attachment 589977

Don't piss Tree off... He is bad enough thinking somewhat clearly...

 

[Jollyrei]

So, Bob if it's you, Wragg and Tree in this truel, which one is The Good, which one is The Bad and which one is The Ugly?

Good question...

Just remember that in duels/"truels", as in other types of gambling, the house always wins.

 

[bellesouth]

Actually, one thing I think we need to know - are they only allowed one shot each?

My mistake - they have two shots each. And your post with the maths involved contains the nub of the answer.

 

[Eulalia]

Thinking about in the fuzzy-headed dawn (rather than the muddle-headed night) -
It wouldn't be a good idea for Tree to kill either of them with his first shot,
as the other one would have a good chance of killing him with theirs,
so he'd better try to miss both of them - but being such a bad shot, he'll probably kill one of the accidentally!
Assuming he doesn't and they're both still alive, Bob and Wragg will probably prioritise killing each other,
as Tree presents the least risk to them both - either Bob will kill Wragg (50/50 chance), or Wragg will kill Bob (dead cert);
after that, Tree should use his second shot to try to kill the survivor (1 in 3 chance),
if he fails, and Wragg's still alive, then he's had it, but Bob's 2nd shot may miss him.
(Bob could decide to waste his first shot, but he'd know Wragg would be likely to prioritise killing him,
and Wragg would have no motive at all for wasting his shot)

 

[Jollyrei]

We could drop the whole thing (it sounds very messy) and just crucify Belle.

 

[Barbaria1]

We could drop the whole thing (it sounds very messy) and just crucify Belle.

Yes, that would be putting Tree’s dubious skills to better use. And Wragg could report on the crucifixion and Bob could illustrate it and everyone will be happy.

 

[bellesouth]

Elulia's logic is impeccable - what Belle wrote was "Please make sure you miss with your first shot."

She also thinks that Jollyrei's suggestion, on reflection, might be a better option than having Tree as a suitor.

 

[Loxuru]

Belle fears for Tree’s safety in the forthcoming duel but is determined to give him the best chance of surviving and so be able to claim her hand at the end of it. So that night she writes a note to Tree with some advice on how to improve his chance of success.

What did she write on the note.
[This is a hard one and as a clue Belle will tell you that the answer lies in probabilities and you are looking for the best chance not a certain chance of success.]

The message could also be : 'secretly try to unload Wragg's gun'. Tree can safely aim at Bob, who has to spread his chances : risking to be shot by Tree, or (unaware of the empty gun) a certain death from Wragg. So it becomes a duel between the worst shootists and Tree's chances increase.

In The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, that worked!

 

[Madiosi]

Just remember that in duels/"truels", as in other types of gambling, the house always wins.
View attachment 590022

Remind me on a old Jethro Tull cover. Stormwatch

 

[morten sigurdson]

Remind me on a old Jethro Tull cover. Stormwatch

Great band

 

[Wragg]

We could drop the whole thing (it sounds very messy) and just crucify Belle.

Absolutely. Much more straightforward. No messing about with nasty, noisy guns.

 

[windar]

Absolutely. Much more straightforward. No messing about with nasty, noisy guns.

Remember, as the NRA says, guns don't kill people, bullets do....

 

[malins]

Remember, as the NRA says, guns don't kill people, bullets do....

Well, sometimes we see those scenes where shooter empties their gun at the hero/monster and in a last desperation throws the gun at him.

I don't think I've ever seen the scene where the gun jams, and the shooter then resorts to throwing bullets

 

[Wragg]

Well, sometimes we see those scenes where shooter empties their gun at the hero/monster and in a last desperation throws the gun at him.

I don't think I've ever seen the scene where the gun jams, and the shooter then resorts to throwing bullets

Usually there are six assailants who blast away at the hero with their machine guns, pushing about a ton of lead in his direction.

He then takes out a revolver and bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang - all six are dead.

 

[thehangingtree]

Remember, as the NRA says, guns don't kill people, bullets do....

Well, sometimes we see those scenes where shooter empties their gun at the hero/monster and in a last desperation throws the gun at him.

I don't think I've ever seen the scene where the gun jams, and the shooter then resorts to throwing bullets

Clean Ammo... clean guns... The nails and hammer can be rusty... They still work!

 

[malins]

Usually there are six assailants who blast away at the hero with their machine guns, pushing about a ton of lead in his direction.
He then takes out a revolver and bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang - all six are dead.

Well their bullets all collided in the air, and the result was that they all deflected each other away from the target.
Now don't even mention Star wars stormtroopers who are doomed to miss. When I get to writing raygun shootouts they will be different

 

[thehangingtree]

Slow night on the forum...

I hope all are well...

T

 

[Jollyrei]

Slow night on the forum...

I hope all are well...

T

PERHAPS WE NEED TO SHAKE THINGS UP A BIT. A LITTLE MAYHEM AND CARNAGE WITH THE MORRIGAN.

I FEEL QUITE WELL, THANKS.