A Philosophical Thread about Good & Evil - Catastrophes, Coincidences & Theodicy

[Hugin&Munin]

Just say that christian belief is that you are reconstructed after death at the final days. Guess by creating the world in 7 days, he solved the data storage problem. The NDE could be like a last dream, probably to ease the dying. I know however some NDE are horrifying the people.

No, I think that I'm more of an atheist and things like the 7 days are impossible. I don't believe there is any god, whatever it is called. What I wanted to say with my contribution is that the brains of all living beings also ultimately function on the processing of electrical signals that are transmitted to us via sensors (eyes, ears, skin, etc.).

 

[malins]

So, why should you talk as a human being about your "supernatural" abilities, when your society would you probably regard as a danger for the normal ones?

Premonitions don't mean making a public prophecy.

If they are real, premonitions would give individuals this opportunity ..."I have a really bad feeling about X and I am going to come up with an excuse to slip away / not go to work at the towers today / jump on the next ship out of Pompeii"

They wouldn't even have to reveal the fact they had the premonition to the public. Loved ones are in fact likely to accept things like "I just had a bad feeling" and are not usually going to start a witch-hunt.

Any significant clairvoyant ability to pre-sense doom, if it really existed, could certainly be used to the survival advantage of those who had it.

It could sometimes become a disadvantage for those who were too public about it as they might be blamed for causing the disaster instead of just foreseeing it, true.
But that would just weed out the 'tattle-tale clairvoyants' and not the ones who kept their lips tighter.

 

[poem21045]

What does your brain do with the word 'therapist'.......?

There's a pest.

 

[Silent_Water]

Premonitions don't mean making a public prophecy.

If they are real, premonitions would give individuals this opportunity ..."I have a really bad feeling about X and I am going to come up with an excuse to slip away / not go to work at the towers today / jump on the next ship out of Pompeii"

They wouldn't even have to reveal the fact they had the premonition to the public. Loved ones are in fact likely to accept things like "I just had a bad feeling" and are not usually going to start a witch-hunt.

Any significant clairvoyant ability to pre-sense doom, if it really existed, could certainly be used to the survival advantage of those who had it.

It could sometimes become a disadvantage for those who were too public about it as they might be blamed for causing the disaster instead of just foreseeing it, true.
But that would just weed out the 'tattle-tale clairvoyants' and not the ones who kept their lips tighter.

There was a "dreaming clairvoyant" in Great Britain about 20 years ago but I do not know what happened to him. He was in several TV shows in GB and in Germany and his most famous prediction was confirmed by Scotland Yard. They also confirmed that he most probably helped to prevent at least two terrorist attacks in England.
His name is or was Chris Robinson. His prediction of an accident during the Fairford Air Show 1993 was impressive because he sent a fax to the police 24 hours before and he told them he had a dream in which two "weaving spindles" jumped out of their brackets, flew into the sky, collided there and two threads fell from them to Earth.
I do not know how he connected that with the air show but he told the police he was sure that two jets would collide during the show, the pilots would probably be able to save themselves and probably no one else would be hurt "because it was not in his dream" but he would recommend to have additional firefighters there in order to prevent more damage.

Hard to believe but the police really took this fax serious and during the air show, everything happened exactly as he had predicted it, because two Russian MiG-29 collided and crashed, which was a disaster for Russia in those days because they wanted to sell these very new machines:



And I do not think that the Russian pilots scrapped their machines in order to do Chris Robinson a favour.
In spite of this prediction-success, Robinson was relentlessly attacked by scientists and critics who said this was pure coincidence and he would just try to become famous by making false claims to be a clairvoyant.

 

[Eulalia]

Time for a musical interlude

 

[Barbaria1]

Time for a musical interlude

Thsnk goodness. We needed that

 

[Hugin&Munin]

Time for a musical interlude

Lucky, we needed something like that. My biological computer is already starting to overheat and I'm not sure my thinking skills will improve if I try to cool it down with whiskey.

 

[Silent_Water]

Yeah, I am becoming tired, too, although I should be able to work next week again during the nights, so I just throw here some abstracts into this thread which I would like to discuss next time (but I do not know when "next time" will be for me here).

It may look like there is no connection but you will have remarked that I am most probably a "sheep" and so I see connections like no one else - especially when I am tired which is like I am drunk:

1. The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradoxon is something we simply must discuss soon in order to possibly explain some very strange coincidences.

2. Coincidences in the lifes of twins and the question if this might have a relation with the EPR-Paradoxon.
Example: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/1858721.stm

3. The question if the theory of probabilities and some formulas like the "Poisson-Equation" is not also a kind of "black magic" because it can tell for example for insurance companies something like the probability of the numbers of deadly accidents on one street in one year.
OK, but does this not collide somehow with our imagination of free will? Because a certain number of human beings will certainly die on this street during one year according to the "Poisson-Equation", but the persons who will die there certainly would not have thought to be one day a part of this equation.

OK, this is now too late for me to discuss this but you know now your homework for my next visit here.

 

[Tyrant]

There was a "dreaming clairvoyant" in Great Britain about 20 years ago but I do not know what happened to him.

Yeah, he goes by the business name 'Psychic Superstar' and you can hire him on Oranum as your personal psychic consultant to help with all of your relationship problems, dream interpretations, etc.

Add me to the pile of skeptics, I think that the entire chain of events would need to be very carefully vetted as his story sounds mostly like a one-sided marketing ploy similar to many others who claim to have 'magical abilities'. Claiming that he 'told the police' this and that to lend himself credibility.

I do recall the One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge which many tried but nobody ever won. - It should be a walk in the park for a real psychic, but no, psychics prefer to make their living by manipulating gullible people, not by actually demonstrating their abilities under the scrutiny of objective analysis. Why take a few bucks from an old lady when you could pick the correct powerball numbers, win every horse race, or be like Biff with his almanac in Back to the Future?

Oh yeah, it's because there's a sucker born every minute.

 

[Silent_Water]

OK, I did not know anything of "Oranum" but you can also check for "Sergeant McGregor" who was quoted in a German TV show in 2008 as British police representant because he was police officer at the time of the Fairford Air Show and he said, he was certainly a sceptic but on the other hand, being a police officer and receiving such a relatively detailed report about a disaster which then really happened, what would you do?
If you do nothing, it might be as wrong as doing something. He was involved in several cases in which the Britisch police acted and he said the dreams of Robinson were not simply to be explained as pure coincidence. How probable is it to predict a plane crash on an Air Show with such details by pure chance via a written fax to the police?

And it is not only correct to be a sceptic but it is sometimes also like in my example about the masses of birds. It is very difficult to make distinctions between charlatanx and people with really unnatural abilities because the first reaction to them is the same and the reaction of charlatans and real "psychics" to such a negative feedback is also often the same.
Another example from "human" society: In Romania there are living about two millions of gypsies and they have their own MPs in parliament. One of them said about 10 years ago, that the Romanian society regards them constantly as antisocial thieves, you usually cannot get a normal job in Romania when your skin color is a bit darker and your name sounds like the name of a gypsy. So, he said publicly in parliament, when you are born with such a stigma, everyone else outside of your community regards you as a thief and even he as a MP remarks that his colleagues do not put their coats in his near because he could be the "gypsy thief of the parliament", what will you become - a high ranking member of the Romanian society or rather a thief? You are probably only fulfilling the expectations of the society because this society has not many choices left for you.

Another example: You may know the funny movie "The Men Who Stare at Goats" with George Clooney and the real story behind is that the US-military really once had a unit for "paranormal remote viewing" and experimenting with "mind expanding drugs".

(Funny for me to imagine an US military unit during the 1970's and early 1980's being constantly "high on Marijuana" etc. "for military reasons", but they really existed.)

The greatest success of this unit was a man with the name Joseph McMoneagle who claimed to be able to wander in his mind to distant places and watching in real time what was just happening there. He said, he received this ability after he had a life-threatening accident and a NDE.

He once was told he should try to find out what was just happening in Siberia because US-satellites remarked the construction of a huge building, a giant hall, which was obviously constructed by Soviet-Russian military units with a lot of expenditures and efforts. He said - and this story is really confirmed - he went to a very silent room in an US military complex and tried to imagine flying there in his mind entering the hall in Siberia and he "saw" the structures of a giant submarine, which was just assembled there.
He told this to his commanding officers who did not believe him because there was no direct way to the water or to the sea from this hall.
But about one year later, the Soviet military began to dig a kilometers long channel from the nearest big river to this hall and the first Soviet submarine from "Project 941 Akula" of the so-called "Typhoon"-class was running of the stack from this giant hall.
OK, and now guess what Joseph McMoneagle was doing later?
He was writing books about his "remote viewing" - investigations for private persons and about aliens from other stars.

So ... ?

 

[Tyrant]

Well, the 'Stargate Project' that he was involved in was shut down due to having 'No discernable benefit' - which seems to be one of the defining characteristics of most hocus-pocus type thinking.

There are mysteries in the universe and things that we don't understand. People can either fill in the blanks using their imaginations. - Which has been done for millennia with often very strange and fucked up consequences, or, people can gain an understanding of objective reality using some verifiable, repeatable, testable, methodological process (i.e. scientific method).

As far as I can tell, one approach consistently yields results, and the other doesn't. To a great extent, our success as a species relies on our ability to leverage objective reality to our advantage, so the more that we are able to understand it, the more capable we become.

The big problem with 'psychic powers' and so forth is that they have never been able to hold up to rigorous scientific inquiry (and not for lack of trying). - Making them not very useful in practice.

But, in the end, if you want magic, remember that there is no discernable difference between magic and sufficiently advanced technology. - After all, we don't need to worry about UFOs if we can make our own.

 

[montycrusto]

Chris Robinson. His prediction of an accident during the Fairford Air Show 1993

the dreams of Robinson were not simply to be explained as pure coincidence. How probable is it to predict a plane crash on an Air Show with such details by pure chance via a written fax to the police?

Ok, I am having trouble confirming this story; the only source for it seems to be Chris Robinson himself. But let’s assume it’s true that he made this prediction and that its accuracy was verified by the police. That becomes a lot less impressive when you know Robinson makes such predictions all the time, and only some of them come true.

(Source: the description of his book “Dream Detective” on Amazon : “Since 1989, Chris Robinson has been "dreaming" of various crimes, terrorist acts and natural disasters through sub-conscious messages received while he sleeps. During the past five years, he has had over 150 specific dreams and about 50 per cent of them have proved to be accurate. Chris has been helping the police with as many cases as possible and two particular Detective Chief Inspectors are in constant contact with him. Examples of his dreams are: the 1991 St Alban's bombing; the 1991 mortar attack on Downing Street; the 1993 Graaf diamond robbery; and the Canary Wharf bombing”)

So. He makes a lot of predictions, and sometimes they are confirmed, sometimes not. He claims a 50% success rate. Does that sound like a reliable system? Or more like random chance? Perhaps Robinson is slightly exaggerating how seriously the police treat his claims? After all, the guy wants to sell books, appear on tv and get those sweet consultancy fees.

I know I probably sound like the worst kind of closed-minded skeptic. But these kind of grifters have been at this snake-oil selling routine since the Stone Age, and it keeps working on people. The time to start believing his claims is when they’re independently verified. He says several police officers take his claims seriously, but that’s just another claim. (And even if true, would be unremarkable; police officers are capable of believing all kinds of things). Without independent verification, believing such claims is by definition irrational.
(Also, I’m not closed-minded; I could be persuaded! But not by these sorts of claims; by confirmation with testing under laboratory conditions, which is how we establish if phenomena are real or not.)

 

[Silent_Water]

...
(Also, I’m not closed-minded; I could be persuaded! But not by these sorts of claims; by confirmation with testing under laboratory conditions, which is how we establish if phenomena are real or not.)

OK, but how will you ever confirm for example the dreams of J.W. Dunne under laboratory conditions?
Even he himself - and I have no doubt that he was a honourable man - because all his comrades in the British army and all his companions confirmed everything he ever told about himself and about his dreams - said that it is impossible for him to really control or steer his dreams and most of his dreams were about experiences he himself was experiencing together with his army companions. How will you prove that except from the stories of his companions or from his higher ranking officers?
When you read this review of his most famous book, it is natural that we from our view of today can say, his theory cannot be correct but he really tried to understand why he had these dreams - and as I said before - similar to very many psychologists, I have no doubt that these precognitive dreams really exist and that there are honorable men who try to understand how they are possible:

An Experiment with Time - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[montycrusto]

OK, but

I’d prefer to stick with Robinson for now, to avoid confusing the issue. His claims are testable under laboratory conditions; he needs to put his predictions on paper before the events predicted, then the paper is put in an envelope and taped to the ceiling with measures to prevent any possibility of tampering. The “psychic” agrees with the researchers on when the envelope will be opened. This is how the James Randi foundation tested such claims; they always failed the test. This would need to be done multiple times to confirm even that any phenomenon was happening, not just chance... and Robinson himself claims only 50% chance of success, which is like tossing a coin. Sure he claims there were all these details, specifics of date and location and so on.. but what evidence do we really have that he didn’t add such details to his prediction after the fact?

James Randi Educational Foundation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

As for J.W.Dunne, he is safe from such investigations by virtue of being dead, but that’s no reason to take his claims of “precognition” seriously

 

[montycrusto]

I have no doubt that these precognitive dreams really exist

What would it take to change your mind? I’ve told you what it would take to change mine.


(edit: to be clear, my position is that I doubt that these precognitive dreams exist)

 

[Tyrant]

OK, but how will you ever confirm for example the dreams of J.W. Dunne under laboratory conditions?

An Experiment with Time - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It's nice for fantasy fodder, here, I'll give you a scenario.

A person who enjoys crux stuff has a dream about a young pretty slave woman being wrongfully accused of a crime for which she is crucified.

While it seems like only a dream, it is in fact a real event that happened some 2,000 years ago.

The reason that the event took place at all however was because the consciousness of the person who had the dream in the present day transcended time by accessing a higher dimension, and then mingled with the dream state consciousness of the woman's master. The thoughts were transferred between them which created the inception of the idea within the master to levy the accusation against his slave.

So, the person didn't just dream about this young pretty slave woman being crucified, he actually caused her to be crucified by precognitive consciousness accessing higher time dimensions and interfacing with some other consciousness that existed in a different timeline.

- This would be sort of like some type of cerebral spooky action at a distance where ideas are transferred on another plane of consciousness that transcend time.

And why would the ideas be swapped to this particular master? - Because it's the same soul reincarnated!

 

[Silent_Water]

As you may have read my remark above with the quotation of the psychologist Gertrude Schmeidler and her distinction of "Sheep" and "Goats", I am afraid it is a matter of the matrix in our brains and it is probably not possible to change that. Although Einstein was such a great scientist, he believed in the existence of God and although I am a doubter like the incredulous Thomas, it is a matter of our matrix in our brains and of our experiences. My mother had precognitive dreams about our family which came true and I believe that.
Nothing will ever change this belief of mine in precognitive dreams, I am sorry.

 

[montycrusto]

My mother had precognitive dreams about our family which came true and I believe that.
Nothing will ever change this belief of mine in precognitive dreams, I am sorry

With greatest respect, and I really don’t mean to offend.. (also I don’t know the details in this case).. you would go on believing it even if other explanations were put forward? Your mother (or you) could not have been honestly mistaken and have never been wrong about anything? I ask in all friendliness, as I’d like to try and understand your mind-set of absolute certainty without good evidence (anecdotes are evidence, but they’re not good evidence).

 

[malins]

My mother had precognitive dreams about our family which came true and I believe that.
Nothing will ever change this belief of mine in precognitive dreams, I am sorry.

That's OK in the same way that a personal, inner revelation experience ("I believe Jesus Christ is my Lord and Savior because I actually met him personally and he guided me through a terrible life crisis ... that's why I'm member of an evangelical church that seems crazy to you") can't be 'disproven' from the outside and can be a motivation for the personal biography. Or experiencing union with the universe during a mystic experience etc.

But such personal revelation experiences can't really be used to establish the general reality of the world, if they aren't transferable to others...

 

[Silent_Water]

Mhm, montycrusto, you seem to think that I believe in precognitive dreams because they are being something magic or supernatural but this is not the case.
I think and I tried to say this before that time is not a linear phenomenon and we might have a look into the near future in conditions of our mind when we are relaxed or sleeping.
For me, it is not impossible to believe in such a short "time travel in one's mind" and this could be an explanation without taking it into something "magic".

There are also a lot of "sci-fi" stories that simply a human being in a rocket nearing the speed of light would make a time travel into our future and at the same time he would stay in his normal time. This is in principle according to Einstein's theory of relativity and I think, this could somehow be an access to precognitive dreams, too.