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The Coffee Shop

  • Thread starter The Fallen Angel
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I think one of the most unfortunate, and potentially devastating aspects of the contemporary political atmosphere is the way it turns any kind of topic into a political one, thus making it impossible to debate it on rational grounds.

Things like how to deal with a pandemic or global warming is a legitimate topic for politicians to debate. But contending the factual elements, such as whether or not a vaccine is effective, or how serious is the danger of climate change should never be their job.

Academia is one of the very few institutions we have which is largely free from the sway of money or political power. Of course, companies and governments spend a lot of effort to sponsor researches which will yield favourable conclusions to them. But it’s virtually impossible to silence everyone else to prevent them from cross checking those conclusions and publishing the results.

To think of it, it’s almost incredible how we still have a tradition that allows the most intelligent people around the world to collaborate to discover the secrets of the universe and share their findings for free so that anyone can validate them or use them for their own good, when almost everything else is privatised or regulated by those have money and power.

You can still debate things like whether or not to ban abortion, or what to do with immigrants. But it’s not a job for any politician or their supporters to contest scientific consensus with their “own research” or “common sense.”

Mankind has come a long way since the time when scientists had to prove their findings were not violating some religious tenets or prevalent prejudices of society. There’s no reason to go back to that time.
 
What we've been having for much of the time this winter is areas of deep, cyclonic low pressure developing quite suddenly in the east Atlantic, so we've had storm warnings again and again (about a dozen so far) with 48-24 hours warning or less. The ocean temperature in that region has been off the dial, >2c above what's normal, and that's surely the reason for these repeated mini-hurricanes. Thinking vertically, what seems to be happening is that the twin turbines - in the ocean and in the atmosphere - have slowed down, so that alternating masses of cold and warm are running up against each other, strong highs and lows, with exceptionally powerful airstreams between them, and likewise the rotation of cold water sinking and warm water moving across it is stalling. This may be reinforced because of El Nino, but it's in line with predictions that we'll be getting much more unsettled weather, spells of exceptional heat and cold, wet and dry, strong winds and frequent storms.
A month or so ago we had some heavy rain in the southwest of the UK (nothing in the least bit unusual about that at this time of year) and as usual the media were trying to instill panic in the population, telling us all that the sky is falling etc etc etc...

A BBC report at the time showed film of parts of the Somerset Levels completely transformed into lakes!

The thing is, I spend a lot of time in Somerset and know quite a few people who live there, both in the towns and in the more rural areas, and all of them told me (independently) that yes they did have some flooding there but not too extreme and nowhere near as bad as they've had in the past. In fact back in mid January I spent a weekend in Glastonbury staying with friends and driving around the county there was very little sign of the extensive flooding shown on tv.

Well to cut a long story short, it turned out that the BBC, along with several other media outlets, had been showing footage of the very severe flooding that affected the area back in 2014 (I remember this well - it was fairly bad here too - after all, as the crow flies, I'm only about 35 miles from Somerset, so our weather here is more or less the same as what they have over on the other side of the Bristol Channel)

And this is why you can NOT trust the media anymore. Their puppet masters in the WEF have an agenda to push and they don't give a crap if they tell the truth or not :(

As we should all be aware by now, we're now living in a post-truth society :(

We have to stop being willing to be spoon fed with propaganda and go out and do our own research in order to discover what's really going on because the media is not being straight with us (assuming they ever were in the first place...)
 
A BBC report at the time showed film of parts of the Somerset Levels completely transformed into lakes!
The Somerset Levels were of course lakes, until they were drained. There's a lot to be said for turning them back to lakes again.

Academia is one of the very few institutions we have which is largely free from the sway of money or political power.
What planet are you on, FM? May we join you?
 
The Somerset Levels were of course lakes, until they were drained. There's a lot to be said for turning them back to lakes again.
Then I could row a boat all the way from South Wales over to Glastonbury (probably quicker than doing it by road given the stupid 20mph restrictions around here and the arbitary 50mph limits of much of the M4 in Wales - bear in mind that while Glastonbury is a mere 35 miles from where I live - as the crow flies - it's a good 100 miles by road, because they built the Severn Bridge in the wrong place)

Back in the mid 80s there used to be a passenger hovercraft service running from Barry on the South Wales coast (about 12 miles from where I live) over to Weston Super Mare, which would be far more practical if only it had the ability to carry cars, such as the large hovercraft that used to operate between Dover and Calais, before the Channel Tunnel devastated their business model.

Sadly it was operating an old SRN-6 hovercraft that could only carry around 15-20 people and no cars, making it practically useless for anyone who wanted to do anything more than just visit the seaside "entertainments" :(

While the service was reasonably popular, it failed to make any money and was scrapped after a season or two :(

Screenshot_2024-02-29 Shipping Capture Burnham(1).jpgScreenshot_2024-02-29 Shipping Capture Burnham(2).jpgScreenshot_2024-02-29 Shipping Capture Burnham.jpg
Photos grabbed from here;
 
Then I could row a boat all the way from South Wales over to Glastonbury (probably quicker than doing it by road given the stupid 20mph restrictions around here and the arbitary 50mph limits of much of the M4 in Wales - bear in mind that while Glastonbury is a mere 35 miles from where I live - as the crow flies - it's a good 100 miles by road, because they built the Severn Bridge in the wrong place)

Back in the mid 80s there used to be a passenger hovercraft service running from Barry on the South Wales coast (about 12 miles from where I live) over to Weston Super Mare, which would be far more practical if only it had the ability to carry cars, such as the large hovercraft that used to operate between Dover and Calais, before the Channel Tunnel devastated their business model.

Sadly it was operating an old SRN-6 hovercraft that could only carry around 15-20 people and no cars, making it practically useless for anyone who wanted to do anything more than just visit the seaside "entertainments" :(

While the service was reasonably popular, it failed to make any money and was scrapped after a season or two :(

View attachment 1439477View attachment 1439478View attachment 1439480
Photos grabbed from here;
Much like where I am - the Isle of Man is only 45 miles across the sea, but to get there I have to drive well over 100 miles (half the way behind HGVs and frequent tractors, along the non-dual, potholed A75) to get the ferry at Heysham, or else to Glasgow Airport to pay a few hundred £ to fly. 100 years back, there were regular steamboats to IoM, Liverpool, Belfast, etc. etc.
 
What planet are you on, FM? May we join you?
On a planet where girls are kept naked and collared as slaves. I knew you’d like to join… wait do I sound like John Norman? :p

Seriously though, what I meant could be understood if you imagine an alternative world where most researchers keep what they found as company secrets or commodities instead of publishing them on journals for free. What feels remarkable to me is that such an alternative doesn’t sound like a dystopian fiction, but a very plausible convention in a capitalist society we know.
 
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This got posted in a historical group, of which I am a member. Gambargin does some fun, historical, quasi-historical, and fantasy line drawings.
Thought it would be fun to share, here.
 

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This got posted in a historical group, of which I am a member. Gambargin does some fun, historical, quasi-historical, and fantasy line drawings.
Thought it would be fun to share, here.
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Gambargin is great, I've posted some of her work also in the past, occasionally she does these fun pieces, including BDSM ones which however means umm Byzantine discussion etc etc, also introspective ones about the challenges of being an artist. recommended to follow or watch on whatever platform you are, she is also on xwitter, DA etc.
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This got posted in a historical group, of which I am a member. Gambargin does some fun, historical, quasi-historical, and fantasy line drawings.
Thought it would be fun to share, here.
For those who might not be fluent in the language, seax is an Old English, Anglo-Saxon, word for a short sword like that one. The name of the Saxons might have been formed from that, it's not certain.
 
While discussion of Mustangs has been rightly declared off the road in Help the Forums, I wonder if many here are aware that there was a Kingdom of Mustang, now a small part of Nepal, right up in the Himalayas near the Chinese (really Tibet) border? I watched a feature about it recently, it looks a fascinating place where the traditional culture remained hardly touched by the outside world until recently. (The prof who knows most about the place uses the spelling Möstang, that's closer to the local language)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upper_Mustang
 
While discussion of Mustangs has been rightly declared off the road in Help the Forums, I wonder if many here are aware that there was a Kingdom of Mustang, now a small part of Nepal, right up in the Himalayas near the Chinese (really Tibet) border? I watched a feature about it recently, it looks a fascinating place where the traditional culture remained hardly touched by the outside world until recently. (The prof who knows most about the place uses the spelling Möstang, that's closer to the local language)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upper_Mustang
If anyone was wondering - and I'm sure everyone was - the Old West word "mustang", refering to a wild horse, like most Old West words, comes from Spanish. It's Anglicized from the words mestengo and mostrenco, both meaning livestock that has gone feral and has no owner.
owl-teacher-professor-clip-art-png.jpg
 
Much like where I am - the Isle of Man is only 45 miles across the sea, but to get there I have to drive well over 100 miles (half the way behind HGVs and frequent tractors, along the non-dual, potholed A75) to get the ferry at Heysham, or else to Glasgow Airport to pay a few hundred £ to fly. 100 years back, there were regular steamboats to IoM, Liverpool, Belfast, etc. etc.
Where's your initiative? Just borrow a jet ski.........

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-55280466
 
Tree remembers reputable news magazines in the 1970s predicting we were entering a new ice age and we would be out of oil by the late 1980s... hmm...
Anyway yeah that's true. Those predictions did exist!

It's interesting though to investigate how they came about. Did people simply make shit up or were there were honest mistakes one can learn from.

The idea of 'oil running out' or peak oil theory basically goes back to a 1950's prediction by a guy called M King Hubbert (not to be confused with L Ron Hubbard).

He derived it from observing the way individual oil fields were exploited, scaling up to how regions or basins got exploited and then up to the national level.

His prediction was basically that U.S production would peak in 1970 and then it would go downhill pretty symmetrically.
Red is the 1956 prediction, green is actual production.

So one can understand that up until around the early 1990s this seemed quite prescient.
Hubbert_Upper-Bound_Peak_1956.png

He hadn't predicted the absolute amount of the maximum, but the shape of the curve seemed right, it peaked in 1970 and then went downhill along the curve.
Of course implicitly this would also apply to other oil producers.
Maybe Saudi Arabia had more oil and started later but the curve would be similar. That was the theory.

The production curve started peeling off by the mid 1990s but back then a lot of people said, that's a last desperate gamble. Dead cat bounce.
(Note- Alaskan oil developed from the 1970s onwards isn't included here)

But after 2009 production went crazy and no longer had any relation to the curve whatsoever.

So on the shorter term (about 35 years) the simple resource limit theory was right.

In the intermediate term, ca 70 years ... liberal market theorists won - market demand and tech innovation (horizontal drilling, fracking, deep sea...) have made it possible to develop reservoirs that before wouldn't be considered viable - or wouldn't even have been recognized as 'oil'.
Human innovation powered through the assumed resource limit.

In the long term ... these resources are of course also finite and the amount of money and energy that needs to be invested, in order to harvest one unit of energy that can be sold at some price, is increasing.
For instance the production declines in shale oil wells are very rapid compared to conventional 'old school' oil wells which means you continuously need to reinvest. That makes the business also very susceptible to changes in financing situations.

So in the very long run there would be a point where one has simply developed every possible technology to squeeze hydrocarbons from the rock and scoured all the globe for resources and then one would get back on an inescapable decline curve.

However it's very likely that before this time arrives we won't even need those resources.
Because either our civilization has moved on to other energy sources or it has collapsed.

An interesting thought is though that if there is a global civilizational collapse, then there will not ever be a return to another industrial age some several thousand years in the future or so.
Because the easily exploitable resources of coal, gas, and oil are all used up and you can't expect a new civilization to go right to extreeme deep sea drilling etc. The timeframe for coal, oil & gas deposits to form again is on a scale of millions of years...
(Actually even starting a new bronze age won't be easy...)

So to sum it up in the 1970's the notion that oil would become a restricted resource in the foreseeable future wasn't complete nonsense.

As the 1970's proceeded it sure looked like it but of course this was also fired up by panic abut oil crises that were purely political and had nothing to with resource limits (1973 & 1979) and in fact those crises gave an impulse to develop other resources (north sea & alaskan oil)

However the prediction was too static and ignored human adaptation.

Another prediction back from the 70's of course was the Soylent Green world where everything would be hopelessly oercrowded due to rampant oerpopulation and we'd start eating each other. This too has not come to pass with the overwhelming majority of the world's population now living in societies that have below replacement fertility going into the future.

So while doom hangs over us perpetually actually predicting how and when the world ends remains a risky business.

Should it fail to do so, perhaps the future will also laugh about how anyone ever believed AI would kill us all...
 
Should it fail to do so, perhaps the future will also laugh about how anyone ever believed AI would kill us all...
I had more hope and confidence in the world as depicted in '2001 a Space Odyssee', but I am still impaciently waiting for my flying car and my holiday on the Moon!:loco:
OK! As predicted 60 years ago, I have a home computer now, but I suspect, the bloody thing is continuously spying on me!:icon_pc:
 
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